A Statistical Analysis of 2011 Selke Finalists
The Frank J. Selke Trophy is awarded annually “to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game” as judged by the approximately 400 member Professional Hockey Writers’ Association. The NHL Awards are voted on at the end of the regular season, so the writers did not, unfortunately, get to take into account Detroit Red Wing Pavel Datsyuk’s incredible first-round performance against the Phoenix Coyotes. Nor could they factor in Ryan Kesler and Jonathan Toews’ significant contributions in the seven-game battle which their respective teams, the Vancouver Canucks and Chicago Blackhawks, recently fought.
Pavel Datsyuk has claimed the trophy each of the last three years, and every time he has been nominated. If he were to win again, he would be first player to do so four consecutive times since Montreal’s Bob Gainey won it from ‘77-78 to ‘80-81, the first four seasons the award was presented.
Ryan Kesler, also a perennial contender for the award, finished as runner-up in the previous two seasons to Datsyuk and is a finalist now for a third consecutive year. The Canucks forward may have been the most popular choice for the trophy all season, and the fact that his team won the Presidents’ Trophy for the best regular season record, and posted a 2.20 GAA for the season (the lowest team GAA in the NHL for the first time in franchise history) doesn’t hurt his chances.
Last year, the Selke race between Datsyuk and Kesler was the closest of any in 2010 NHL Awards voting, with the former receiving 37 first-place votes to the latter’s 36. The overall points total went to Datsyuk 688-655.
Competing with the two aforementioned heavyweights is Jonathan Toews. The young Chicago star is a Selke nominee for the first time.
While statistics alone do not adequately portray defensive quality, especially that of a forward, I’ll do my best with the numbers I have to determine who, of these finalists, really had the best season defensively and is deserving of the Selke trophy. I’ll also compare the statistics of the 2010-11 finalists with those of the previous 10 Selke winners (Steve Yzerman, John Madden, Michael Peca, Jere Lehtinen, Kris Draper, Rob Brind’Amour (2), and Pavel Datsyuk (3))
First, I must note that Datsyuk missed 26 games this season due to injuries, meaning he played in only 56 regular-season games. While this obviously says nothing about Datsyuk’s defensive proficiency, it means he didn’t get as many opportunities to make an impression on voters, or to show consistency, and it more than likely factored into voting. Kesler, meanwhile, played in all 82 games, and Toews was just two shy with 80. In the past ten seasons, the only Selke winner who played less than 78 games was Kris Draper, and even he played 67, 11 more than Datsyuk.
It’s probably safe to say that ice time is a good indicator of a player’s reliability and endurance within his own team, however, it’s difficult to compare players from different teams using this stat because there are is too much variation in depth between teams. That said, the average time on ice for the last ten Selke winners is 20:12, with variation from 15:35 put up by John Madden in the ‘01-02 season to 24:18 by Rob Brind’Amour in ‘05-06. This year’s finalists all fall about in the middle, with Toews at 20:46, Kesler at 20:30, and Datsyuk at 19:19 (a full minute down from his 20:19 average for his previous three seasons, but 6 seconds better than his 19:13 mark from ‘08-09). Also notable, Kesler and Toews spent significant time killing penalties, with average shorthanded ice time at 2:33 and 1:57. Datsyuk’s 39 second average looks quite small in comparison, but this is in part due to injuries and the fact that the Red Wings simply have more players capable of killing penalties than the Canucks and Blackhawks.
Now that we have ice time out of the way, perhaps the best stats to measure defensive ability for forwards are hits, blocks, giveaways, takeaways, plus/minus, and faceoffs.
Toews placed second in the NHL in faceoffs taken with 1,653 and had one of the best win percentages at 56.7%. Kesler placed sixth in faceoffs taken with 1,496 and had a slightly better percentage at 57.4%. They were two of the most reliable faceoff men in the league, no doubt. Datsyuk won 54.6% of his draws in significantly less chances.
Toews was also among the league leaders in plus/minus rating with a 25, good for ninth in the league. Kesler was not far behind, with a 24 rating. Toews was the only Blackhawk in the top 50 for +/-, while Kesler’s rating was bested by three of his teammates, suggesting that he benefited much more than Toews in being constantly surrounded by above average players. Datsyuk’s rating, adjusted for 82 games, is significantly lower at just over 16.
Datsyuk, as always, was among the best at creating turnovers. Even with his limited games he amassed enough takeways, 71, to finish eleventh in the league. Had he piled up takeaways at that rate for a full season, he would have totaled 104, good for second only to Joe Thornton (who also had significant giveaways with 98). Datsuk’s takeaway/giveaway ratio was better than 2 to 1. Toews placed 2nd with 93 takeaways. He was also very good with the puck, with only 30 turnovers, meaning a ratio better than 3 to 1. Kesler’s ratio was about 3 to 1 as well, with 65 takeaways, seventeenth in the league, and only 21 giveaways.
Kesler blocked 80 shots, good for fourth among forwards. Toews had only 28, and Datsyuk blocked shots at only a slightly higher rate, with 29.29 adjusted to Toews’ 28.7.
Kesler also blew away the other two in the hits column. He racked up 124 to Toews’ 74 (75.85 adjusted) and Datsyuk’s 54 (79.07 adjusted). Interestingly, Kesler, ranked highest of the three, finished just 80th in the league among forwards. Apparently this stat is valued significantly less than things like takeaways and plus/minus. Also, Toews is listed as the same height (6′ 2″), and fifteen pounds heavier than Kesler at 210, so it’s interesting to see that in comparison he shies away a bit from the physical aspect of the game. Datsyuk, at 5′ 11″ 197 lbs. gets a pass here, he has never been expected to hit, just to take hits, and he does that quite well.
Toews and Kesler are relatively even in just about every category until hits and blocked shots, where Kesler has a pretty large lead. If it’s too close to call statistically, the edge probably goes to Kesler because of his team’s performance, and the fact that he’s already been a finalist three times.
As much as I would like Datsyuk to win, the stats don’t back him up this year. I think Livonia, MI native Ryan Kesler will win it, and he probably deserves it the most. We’ll find out soon enough. The Selke winner will be announced in Las Vegas at the 2011 NHL Awards ceremony on June 22.