Garret Craig

It’s purely speculation of course, but it seems that most expect Lidstrom to return. If he does, that leaves two spots for the Red Wings to fill, and while they could do so by re-signing Jonathan Ericsson and calling 2007 first-round pick Brendan Smith up from Grand Rapids, at least some of the Wings’ new-found cap space will likely be spent filling a spot in front of rising star Jimmy Howard. If they feel that this is Smith’s year to break ground in the NHL, Jonathan Ericsson may be let go.

Now, to the free agents. It seems logical that Detroit would want to sign someone who would stick around long-term, and therefore I don’t think it’s unreasonable to eliminate anyone under 34 (Rafalski was signed by the Wings three months before his 34th birthday). According to QuantHockey.com, the average age of NHL defensemen in the 2010-2011 regular season was 27.403 simple and 27.967 weighted. Ideally, they would sign someone right around that number, who can make an immediate impact and eventually emerge as a top-tier defenseman. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many of such players available on the free agent market. They’ll also want someone who can contribute immediately and play significant minutes. That leaves 14 candidates (under 34, w/ 20+ GP & 15+ TOI/60 in 2010-2011, plus Andrei Markov, minus Jonathan Ericsson) who could potentially make the move to Hockeytown.

Kevin Bieksa (30, Vancouver) - Teammates Christian Ehrhoff and Sami Salo are also free agents. The Canucks will most likely only sign two, but it is difficult to envision Bieksa not being one of them. He made just 3.5 million this season, but his fantastic postseason (5 goals, 4 assists, +10), and the fact that his team is in the Stanley Cup Final, will increase his value immensely. He would be a fantastic fit for the Red Wings (big right-handed shot, physical, etc.), but they probably don’t have a great chance at signing him. Art Regner labeled him as the Red Wings’ most attractive option, but also shares my opinion that Vancouver will spend the money to resign him.

Eric Brewer (32, Tampa Bay) - Another physical defenseman, and the former captain of the St. Louis Blues, Brewer was traded to Steve Yzerman’s Lightning in February. His playoff performance this year has been very formidable (leading Tampa Bay in time on ice, and all players in blocked shots), and though at 32, he is in the latter part of his career, the lack of top defenders available could lead him to a raise from the $4.25 million he made this year.

Christian Ehrhoff (29, Vancouver) - Will also be looking for a pay raise (made 3.4 million this year). Vancouver may have a tough time signing both, and I believe there is a good chance Ehrhoff will be available. In contrast to Bieksa, he is an offensive defenseman (scored 50 points in the regular season, 7th among defensemen), similar to Rafalski except that he is a left-handed shot.

Andy Greene (28, New Jersey) - One of New Jersey’s top defenseman, but more because of a lack of depth the Devils have at the position than an enormous amount of skill on his part. His salary will probably land somewhere between $2-3 million, and it looks right now like he will probably sign with his current team before July 1st.

Scott Hannan (32, Washington) - The Capitals have 7 defensemen signed for next year, and early speculation is that the aging Hannan will be let go. He’s another Eric Brewer type defenseman, physical play being his strong suit. He made $4.5 million in 2010-11, and will probably be looking to find a team willing to give him about that much again, and for 1-2 years. I don’t see him as a fit for Detroit, unless it was just to fill a spot for a year until they can sign someone like Ryan Suter. Even if that’s the case, there are better, cheaper options out there.

Jan Hejda (33, Columbus) - Columbus is looking to overhaul their defensive unit, and Jan Hedja is most likely on his way out. He will likely make around $3 million wherever he goes, and play on a second or third pairing. Certainly not capable of filling the void left by Rafalski, but, like Hannan, is an option if the Red Wings are just looking to plug a hole and spend more of their money on offense.

Tomas Kaberle (33, Boston) - Has had a disappointing showing in his limited tenure with Boston. Fans are not happy with his play, and his price tag of $4.25 million will have to drop significantly if he wants to remain a Bruin. Despite his falling out in these playoffs, Ted Kulfan of The Detroit News suggests that he will be “aggressively pursued” by Boston.

Andrei Markov (32, Montreal) - Coming off knee surgery that limited him to just 7 games last season, the second major surgery on his knee in consecutive seasons, Markov is facing questions about durability. However, if healthy, he may be the best defenseman available. His salary will match that, probably remaining close to the $5.75 million he made last year. Even if the Canadiens don’t re-sign him (which, loyalty factored, I think they will), I don’t know if for the Red Wings, the high salary he will demand will be worth the health risk.

Steve Montador (31, Buffalo) - Consistency has been an issue for Montador, and he slipped to seventh on the Sabres’ depth chart towards the end of their playoff run. He made just $1.55 million per year in his expiring contract, and is not likely to see more than that in his new contract. He wants to stay with the Sabres, but there’s a good chance he’s on his way out. He could serve as a short-term role player for the Wings until a better free agent class emerges next year, and he would come cheap, but he is not the long-term solution Detroit needs with Rafalski gone.

Joni Pitkanen (27, Carolina) - The Hurricanes seem resigned to the possibility that they will not be able to re-sign Joni Pitkanen. He’ll be looking for a pay raise from the $4.5 million he made last season, but he moves the puck well and his aggressive offensive style is similar to that of Rafalski. Maybe most importantly, he has quite a few years of hockey ahead of him, and may have his best years ahead of him.

Jim Vandermeer (31, Edmonton) - Will likely take a pay cut from the $2.3 million he made last year, and wherever he signs (probably not with the Red Wings), he will serve as veteran depth.

Ian White (27, San Jose) - Another young player who, like Rafalski, has great ability to move the puck and has a hard right-handed shot. He made $3 million last year, and the competitive market could equal a big pay-raise. If they want him, the Red Wings will likely have to outbid the Sharks, who traded a number two draft pick to acquire him from Carolina and will be looking to keep their core intact for another deep playoff run.

James Wisniewski (27, Montreal) - Maybe the most intriguing option for the Red Wings. He’s young, right-handed, aggressive, good offensively, and is a near-perfect fit for Detroit’s system. The question mark for Wisniewski, when thinking about a long-term contract, is his right knee, which has undergone three surgeries already in his young career. He made $3.25 million last year, and his strong play and the weak market will lead to a raise. Montreal will probably try to re-sign him, but he grew up in Canton, MI and Detroit could convince him to come home at a bargain rate.

Jeff Woywitka (27, Dallas) - Made just $700,000 last season, and after cracking the second defensive pairing for the Stars, he will get a pay raise. He would like to return to the Stars, and they seem to have the same interest in bringing him back. It’s unlikely the Red Wings will target him.

Personally, I think the Wings should go after Wisniewski, Pitkanen, Ehrhoff, White, and Brewer, in that order. If all else fails, Ed Jovanovski (who will turn 35 next month) will be on the market, as he is too expensive for Phoenix. He’s a good friend of Todd Bertuzzi, and that, in conjunction with his lack of a Stanley Cup championship in his long career, could make the Red Wings an enticing option for him. There is a chance he might sign a one-year deal at a discount rate to make a run at Stanley with the Wings.

Click here to see the full list of defensive unrestricted free agents.