Garret Craig

The Detroit Red Wings have dug themselves (with a little help) a huge 3-0 hole in their best-of-seven Quarterfinal series against the San Jose Sharks. But as much as there is to say about the Red Wings’ poor play and the suspect refereeing we’ve seen in these first three games, this article isn’t going to look at either. Rather, this is a look at Detroit’s chances (or lack thereof) in this series going forward.

WARNING: If you haven’t given up on the Red Wings yet, you might want to stop reading here.

Okay. Let’s assume that Detroit has a fifty-fifty chance of winning every game. That would give them a 1-in-16, or 6.2% chance of winning 4 games in a row. But that’s generous. Historically, NHL teams in their situation have done even worse.

Teams down 3-0 have gone 56-103 in Game 4 (regardless of site) (35.2 win %).

Teams down 3-1 have gone 98-140 in Game 5 (regardless of site) (41.2 win %)

Teams down 3-2 have gone 129-174 in Game 6 (regardless of site) (42.6 win %)

Given these numbers, the Red Wings have a 6.2% chance of even advancing to a Game 7. That’s still generous. The most realistic statistic is the 2-157 series record for teams who have been down 3-0.

On top of all that, it seems like overkill to say that the Red Wings, in four attempts, have never won a Quarterfinal without home ice advantage.

But let’s imagine that the Red Wings beat impossible odds to even make it to Game 7. It would be played at HP Pavilion in San Jose, which was recently deemed by a poll of NHL players as the toughest place to play for an NHL road team.

In conclusion–well–pray for the Red Wings.

Jim Devellano, Senior VP of the Detroit Red Wings for 28 years and counting, is a brilliant hockey mind. His off-season genius has no doubt been a significant factor in the creation of the Detroit dynasty that has, for 18 consecutive seasons, made the playoffs. The Wings haven’t just made the playoffs though–they have done it with relative ease, earning a top-four seed with home-ice advantage for 17 seasons straight. On top of that, Detroit has accomplished the ultimate goal, a Stanley Cup Championship, a whopping 4 times in the last 12 seasons.

But according to Jimmy D, the Red Wings would need a “miracle” to end up among the elite of the league in the 2009-10 season. He has decided, just 13 games into this year, that “it’s going to be a grind,” and that “we’re competing with bread and milk.”

To be fair, the Red Wings are dealing with some big off-season losses (Hossa, Samuelsson, Hudler, and Conklin). But as Wings’ General Manager Ken Holland will tell you, they are certainly not in a rebuilding or transition year.

“Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk are two of the best players in the world and they’re in the prime of their careers,” Holland says in response to Devellano’s comments.

Their supporting cast isn’t bad either.

Justin Abdelkader, Ville Leino, and Darren Helm are still developing, but all three have proven that they are capable of posting solid numbers. Then there’s off-season additions Jason Williams, Todd Bertuzzi, and Patrick Eaves, who have all impressed (me at least). They are excellent role players and are very capable of filling the gaps left by a flurry of early-season injuries. You can also throw in hard-workers like Daniel Cleary and Thomas Holmstrom, who’s 8 goals lead the Red Wings.

Once injured stars Johan Franzen and Valtteri Filppula return to the lineup, the Red Wings could easily be one of the top offenses in the league.

Holland adds, “Our top four defensemen (Lidstrom, Rafalski, Ericsson, and Stuart) rank among the best in the league and Chris Osgood (who made 29 saves in a shutout of Boston just two nights ago) has shown what he can do in goal.”

So maybe the Red Wings started slow, but this is definitely not something to panic about. In fact, this has happened before, and more than once. The 2006-07 team started 3–4–1 on their way to an 113 point season and a Central Division title. In October 03′ (a year even more comparable to this one, featuring an injury-plagued team, and a Red Wings patented “goalie controversy”), Detroit went 5-5 in October on their way to a 109-point finish and a Presidents Trophy for most points in the regular season.

Look for the Red Wings (who are 4-1-1 at Joe Louis Arena coming into play tonight) to extend their 2-game win streak, and eventually return to the top of the division. They will play San Jose (#2 in the Western Conference) at home tonight, followed by a Saturday night showdown at their Original 6 rival, the Toronto Maple Leafs.

20,066: The number of fans who will stuff into Joe Louis Arena tonight to witness the most hyped sporting event in Detroit since October 2006. According to ESPN.com, 814,474 cheered the Wings’ through the regular season, compared to 695,997 in Pittsburgh, who watched their team from Mellon Arena, the oldest arena in hockey today. I would imagine the Penguins would like to move to the Consol Energy Center in 2,010 with a Championship banner. Losing in the finals twice in a row would crush the young Pens, and this time, out of the Pens’ 9 UFA’s, who knows how many General Manager Ray Shero will lose to the Red Wings?

On that note, we’ll look at our next number of interest: 4,959, the number of news articles and blog posts published in the past month analyzing and debating Marian Hossa’s “controversial” decision to jump ship from Pittsburgh after last year’s final loss, and move to the team who “gave him the best chance to win the Stanley Cup.” This is the story-line everyone’s talking about. Hossa will have to step it up for Game 7, he’s netted 6 goals in the entire playoffs, but in the finals, only 3 assists. Tonight will more than likely define Marian’s career, and possibly make up Ken Holland’s mind on the tough choice to either let Marian go, or work some more cap magic and bring him back long-term. Wings’ fans can only hope that when the puck drops, his mind will rush back to last year, when he came so close, but it didn’t matter. Hossa has proven he knows how to lose. Now, in what could be the most important game he ever plays, he needs to step it up, or be remembered as the forward who was almost elite, almost a Champion. He has 60 minutes to prove that’s not him.

It’s been 373 days since Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin watched Detroit celebrate on Pittsburgh ice. 373 days they’ve been waiting for tonight, when they have the chance for revenge. To make us feel as they did last year. To make Hossa regret his decision to leave. A chance for Sidney Crosby to finally prove himself to his hundreds of thousands of critics.

For Wings’ fans, it’s been 104 games of yelling at the TV. Those 6,240 minutes thousands of us spent on the edge of our seats, mean nothing if we lose this game. Because now there’s one game. Winner takes all.

A loss for either city, especially Detroit, would be crushing. In the last 10 months, we’ve seen our football team make history by going 0-16, we’ve seen our once unshakable auto industry all but die, and recently, the complete demolition of Tiger Stadium, a Detroit landmark that meant so much to so many people. Detroit needs this win.