Garret Craig

His next start was Sunday afternoon in the series finale against Cleveland. Through the first 3 innings, it looked as if Porcello was back to July form. He allowed 2 hits, but one was of the infield variety and both came with 2 outs. He faced 12 batters and got 10 groundballs. Then, he sat for a extended period of time as the Tigers went crazy on Ubaldo Jimenez, sending 12 batters to the plate and scoring 7 runs. When Porcello returned to the mound, he was a different pitcher. According to the Free Press, he went away from his sinker to his slider.

In 6 starts between July 3rd and August 5th, Porcello went 5-0 with a 3.26 ERA (14 ER), 36 hits (.248 BAA, .299 BABIP), 5 walks (1.060 WHIP), 28 strikeouts (5.6 K/BB) in 38.2 IP (6.45 IP/GS). In that stretch, he threw his sinker 36.9% of the time.

In his last 3 starts, he went 1-2 with a 11.48 ERA (17 ER), 27 hits (.409 BAA, .429 BABIP), 2 walks (2.176 WHIP), 7 strikeouts (3.5 K/BB) in 13.1 IP (4.44 IP/GS). In that stretch, he threw his sinker 48.8% of the time.

Basically, all of his numbers are shockingly worse. One interesting note is that he’s walked just 2 batters and struck out 7. This suggests he’s pitching more to contact. But in reality, he’s actually throwing fewer strikes. Over the 6 game stretch, he threw 65.2% strikes. Over the last 3 games, he’s thrown 62.4%. So it’s not that he’s pitching more to contact. Recently, 21.4% of total batters faces have ended in line drives. During the 6 game stretch, that number was 11.5%. That means the dramatic increase in BABIP, from .299 to .429, can’t be attributed simply to luck. His groundout rate has actually increased, though, from 21.02% to 27.14%. He’s a groundball pitcher, so you would think this would be a positive. Everything else seems to suggest that his pitches have been dramatically more hittable.

The vertical movement on his sinker (a 2-seam fastball according to TexasLeaguers.com) has gone from 3.86 to 2.65. This is the only significant change to his sinker. As far as pitch results, the only real change is a small surge in whiff rate; from 2.8% to 4.2%. As I noted before, he’s relied on the pitch quite a bit more; selection rate has jumped from 36.9% to 48.8%.

He has used his secondary pitch, the slider, quite a bit less; selection rate is down from 27.9% to 19.7%. The in-play rate for the pitch has hiked from 15.5% to 25%. Vertical movement has gone from 2.29 to 0.87, horizontal from 0.99 to -0.77, spin angle from 164 to 201, and spin rate from 698 to 488. I’m no expert, but it seems to me that these changes would indicate the pitch has gone a bit flat. This is his only pitch that has seen a significant dip in spin rate, other than maybe his 4-seam fastball. This is also his only pitch that has had a major change in spin angle. Basically, put those two numbers together and the pitch has less movement and the movement the pitch does still have has been in a different direction. Again, I’m no expert in pitch analysis, but I really can’t see any major changes eyeballing the PITCHf/x Charts.

Over the aforementioned 6 game stretch, Porcello’s 4-seam fastball was his 3rd favorite pitch by selection rate. He used it 21.7% of the time. In his last 3 starts, he’s used it just 12.3%. There has been no huge change in this pitch. The biggest differences are a drop in vertical movement from 7.73 to 6.03 and in spin rate from 1,974 to 1,769.

That leaves his changeup, which seems to be the pitch that has changed the least recently. Lately, Porcello has used it more than he has his fastball at 15.2%, up from 11.8%.

So to summarize, the more recent version of Porcello is relying much more on sinkers (which are generating less vertical movement, but a higher whiff rate) and changeups (which has been a very consistent pitch). He’s throwing fewer sliders (which have gone flat are being put in play much more) and fastballs (which are generating less vertical movement and spin rate).

I’m confident that Porcello will be able to work through whatever issues he’s having, both with pitch selection and mechanics. Supposedly his problem has already been identified, so it’s probably just a matter of time before Porcello can rediscover his rhythm and feel for pitching.

Tonight, he has a fantastic oppurtunity to get back on track, as he’ll be facing a depleted Twins lineup, which has recently lost Delmon Young and Jim Thome to division rivals, the former to the Tigers and the latter to the Indians. They have also been hit with multiple injuries.

Porcello is  3-1 with a 3.42 ERA in four starts against the Twins this year. He’s 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two starts at Target Field. Current Twins are hitting .248 lifetime against Porcello. The biggest threat to him is Jason Kubel, who is 12-for-28 (.429) against Porcello, but is 1-for-16 (.063) in his last 5 games.

On top of all that, opposite Porcello will be rookie Scott Diamond, who made his major league debut in July against Cleveland and went 6.1 innings and allowed 3 runs on 7 hits, 2 walks, and a strikeout. He has struggled this year at AAA for the Rochester Red Wings, posting a 4-14 record with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.577 WHIP. This has been, by far, the worst season of his professional career. He’s allowed 29 runs (26 earned) in 24.2 innings over his last 5 starts.